Serie AWednesday, October 28 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Parma – Udinese
Parma
15th · attack 0.76 · defence 1.10
Udinese
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Udinese favourites for Parma – Udinese, at 39%. Kick-off October 28, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Parma win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Udinese win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.01 goals for Parma and 1.15 for Udinese, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.01 for Parma, 1.15 for Udinese.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Parma wins; above it, Udinese wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Parma goals in rows, Udinese goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Parma v Udinese?
Udinese, at 39%. The full split is Parma 32%, draw 29%, Udinese 39%.
What is the most likely score in Parma v Udinese?
0–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Parma v Udinese?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 63% of the time. Expected goals are 1.01 for Parma and 1.15 for Udinese.
Will both teams score in Parma v Udinese?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Parma keep a clean sheet or Udinese fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.