Serie ASaturday, October 24 · 06:00 PM · 8th matchday
Napoli – Roma
Napoli
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.85
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Our model makes Roma favourites for Napoli – Roma, at 40%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 06:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Napoli win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Roma win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.11 goals for Napoli and 1.28 for Roma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.11 for Napoli, 1.28 for Roma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Napoli wins; above it, Roma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Napoli goals in rows, Roma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Napoli v Roma?
Roma, at 40%. The full split is Napoli 32%, draw 27%, Roma 40%.
What is the most likely score in Napoli v Roma?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Roma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.11 for Napoli and 1.28 for Roma.
Will both teams score in Napoli v Roma?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Napoli keep a clean sheet or Roma fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.