Serie AWednesday, October 28 · 08:45 PM · 9th matchday
Monza – Napoli
Monza
16th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.59
Napoli
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Napoli favourites for Monza – Napoli, at 64%. Kick-off October 28, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Monza win 16% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Napoli win 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 0.89 goals for Monza and 2.03 for Napoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.89 for Monza, 2.03 for Napoli.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Monza wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Monza goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Monza v Napoli?
Napoli, at 64%. The full split is Monza 16%, draw 20%, Napoli 64%.
What is the most likely score in Monza v Napoli?
0–2, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza v Napoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 0.89 for Monza and 2.03 for Napoli.
Will both teams score in Monza v Napoli?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Monza keep a clean sheet or Napoli fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.