Serie ASunday, October 11 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Lecce – Bologna
Lecce
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.22
Bologna
18th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Lecce – Bologna, at 48%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lecce win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Bologna win 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 15.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.85 goals for Lecce and 1.31 for Bologna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.85 for Lecce, 1.31 for Bologna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lecce wins; above it, Bologna wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lecce goals in rows, Bologna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lecce v Bologna?
Bologna, at 48%. The full split is Lecce 24%, draw 28%, Bologna 48%.
What is the most likely score in Lecce v Bologna?
0–1, which comes up in 15.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Bologna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 63% of the time. Expected goals are 0.85 for Lecce and 1.31 for Bologna.
Will both teams score in Lecce v Bologna?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Lecce keep a clean sheet or Bologna fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.