Serie ASaturday, October 24 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Lazio – Parma
Lazio
3rd · attack 1.07 · defence 0.93
Parma
15th · attack 0.76 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Lazio – Parma, at 51%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lazio win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Parma win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 17.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Lazio and 0.70 for Parma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time and both teams scoring 37%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.30 for Lazio, 0.70 for Parma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lazio wins; above it, Parma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lazio goals in rows, Parma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lazio v Parma?
Lazio, at 51%. The full split is Lazio 51%, draw 29%, Parma 20%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio v Parma?
1–0, which comes up in 17.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Parma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 60% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Lazio and 0.70 for Parma.
Will both teams score in Lazio v Parma?
Both teams score in 37% of simulations. Lazio keep a clean sheet or Parma fail to score in the remaining 63%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.