Serie ASunday, October 11 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Lazio – Monza
Lazio
3rd · attack 1.07 · defence 0.93
Monza
16th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.59
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Lazio – Monza, at 61%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lazio win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Monza win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.89 goals for Lazio and 0.88 for Monza, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.89 for Lazio, 0.88 for Monza.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lazio wins; above it, Monza wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lazio goals in rows, Monza goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lazio v Monza?
Lazio, at 61%. The full split is Lazio 61%, draw 22%, Monza 17%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio v Monza?
1–0, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Monza?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.89 for Lazio and 0.88 for Monza.
Will both teams score in Lazio v Monza?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Lazio keep a clean sheet or Monza fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.