Serie ASunday, October 18 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
Juventus – Lazio
Juventus
7th · attack 1.32 · defence 0.82
Lazio
3rd · attack 1.07 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Juventus – Lazio, at 48%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Juventus win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Lazio win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.36 goals for Juventus and 0.88 for Lazio, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.36 for Juventus, 0.88 for Lazio.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Juventus wins; above it, Lazio wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Juventus goals in rows, Lazio goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Juventus v Lazio?
Juventus, at 48%. The full split is Juventus 48%, draw 27%, Lazio 24%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus v Lazio?
1–0, which comes up in 14.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Lazio?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.36 for Juventus and 0.88 for Lazio.
Will both teams score in Juventus v Lazio?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Juventus keep a clean sheet or Lazio fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.