Serie ASaturday, October 10 · 06:00 PM · 6th matchday
Inter – Parma
Inter
2nd · attack 1.97 · defence 0.91
Parma
15th · attack 0.76 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Parma, at 75%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 06:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 75% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Parma win 9%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.40 goals for Inter and 0.69 for Parma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.40 for Inter, 0.69 for Parma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Parma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Inter goals in rows, Parma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Parma?
Inter, at 75%. The full split is Inter 75%, draw 16%, Parma 9%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Parma?
2–0, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Parma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 2.40 for Inter and 0.69 for Parma.
Will both teams score in Inter v Parma?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Parma fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.