Serie ASunday, October 25 · 12:30 PM · 8th matchday
Inter – Fiorentina
Inter
2nd · attack 1.97 · defence 0.91
Fiorentina
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Fiorentina, at 72%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 12:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 72% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Fiorentina win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.60 goals for Inter and 0.99 for Fiorentina, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.60 for Inter, 0.99 for Fiorentina.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Fiorentina wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Inter goals in rows, Fiorentina goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Fiorentina?
Inter, at 72%. The full split is Inter 72%, draw 16%, Fiorentina 12%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Fiorentina?
2–0, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Fiorentina?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.60 for Inter and 0.99 for Fiorentina.
Will both teams score in Inter v Fiorentina?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Fiorentina fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.