Serie ASunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Genoa – Venezia
Genoa
19th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Venezia
20th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.58
Our model makes Genoa favourites for Genoa – Venezia, at 53%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Genoa win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Venezia win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.59 goals for Genoa and 0.93 for Venezia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.59 for Genoa, 0.93 for Venezia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Genoa wins; above it, Venezia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Genoa goals in rows, Venezia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Genoa v Venezia?
Genoa, at 53%. The full split is Genoa 53%, draw 25%, Venezia 22%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa v Venezia?
1–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v Venezia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.59 for Genoa and 0.93 for Venezia.
Will both teams score in Genoa v Venezia?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Genoa keep a clean sheet or Venezia fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.