Serie AWednesday, October 28 · 08:45 PM · 9th matchday
Genoa – Juventus
Genoa
19th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Juventus
7th · attack 1.32 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Genoa – Juventus, at 55%. Kick-off October 28, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Genoa win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Juventus win 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.82 goals for Genoa and 1.57 for Juventus, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.82 for Genoa, 1.57 for Juventus.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Genoa wins; above it, Juventus wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Genoa goals in rows, Juventus goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Genoa v Juventus?
Juventus, at 55%. The full split is Genoa 20%, draw 25%, Juventus 55%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa v Juventus?
0–1, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v Juventus?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 0.82 for Genoa and 1.57 for Juventus.
Will both teams score in Genoa v Juventus?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Genoa keep a clean sheet or Juventus fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.