Serie ASaturday, October 10 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Genoa – Fiorentina
Genoa
19th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Fiorentina
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Fiorentina favourites for Genoa – Fiorentina, at 39% — but only 4.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Genoa win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Fiorentina win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Genoa and 1.29 for Fiorentina, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.20 for Genoa, 1.29 for Fiorentina.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Genoa wins; above it, Fiorentina wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Genoa goals in rows, Fiorentina goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Genoa v Fiorentina?
Fiorentina, at 39%. The full split is Genoa 34%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 39%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa v Fiorentina?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v Fiorentina?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Genoa and 1.29 for Fiorentina.
Will both teams score in Genoa v Fiorentina?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Genoa keep a clean sheet or Fiorentina fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.