Serie AFriday, October 16 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
Frosinone – Sassuolo
Frosinone
6th · attack 1.23 · defence 0.99
Sassuolo
10th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Frosinone favourites for Frosinone – Sassuolo, at 51%. Kick-off October 16, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Frosinone win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Sassuolo win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.69 goals for Frosinone and 1.12 for Sassuolo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.69 for Frosinone, 1.12 for Sassuolo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Frosinone wins; above it, Sassuolo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Frosinone goals in rows, Sassuolo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Frosinone v Sassuolo?
Frosinone, at 51%. The full split is Frosinone 51%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 25%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone v Sassuolo?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Sassuolo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.69 for Frosinone and 1.12 for Sassuolo.
Will both teams score in Frosinone v Sassuolo?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Frosinone keep a clean sheet or Sassuolo fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.