Serie AThursday, October 29 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Frosinone – Lecce
Frosinone
6th · attack 1.23 · defence 0.99
Lecce
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Frosinone favourites for Frosinone – Lecce, at 60%. Kick-off October 29, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Frosinone win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Lecce win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 15.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.67 goals for Frosinone and 0.72 for Lecce, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.67 for Frosinone, 0.72 for Lecce.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Frosinone wins; above it, Lecce wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Frosinone goals in rows, Lecce goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Frosinone v Lecce?
Frosinone, at 60%. The full split is Frosinone 60%, draw 24%, Lecce 16%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone v Lecce?
1–0, which comes up in 15.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Lecce?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.67 for Frosinone and 0.72 for Lecce.
Will both teams score in Frosinone v Lecce?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Frosinone keep a clean sheet or Lecce fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.