Serie ASunday, October 18 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
Fiorentina – Como
Fiorentina
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Como
8th · attack 1.41 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Como favourites for Fiorentina – Como, at 53%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Fiorentina win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Como win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Fiorentina and 1.68 for Como, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.04 for Fiorentina, 1.68 for Como.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fiorentina wins; above it, Como wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fiorentina goals in rows, Como goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fiorentina v Como?
Como, at 53%. The full split is Fiorentina 24%, draw 24%, Como 53%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina v Como?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Como?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Fiorentina and 1.68 for Como.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina v Como?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Fiorentina keep a clean sheet or Como fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.