Serie AThursday, October 29 · 08:45 PM · 9th matchday
Fiorentina – Atalanta
Fiorentina
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Atalanta
11th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Atalanta favourites for Fiorentina – Atalanta, at 47%. Kick-off October 29, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Fiorentina win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Atalanta win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.09 goals for Fiorentina and 1.52 for Atalanta, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.09 for Fiorentina, 1.52 for Atalanta.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fiorentina wins; above it, Atalanta wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fiorentina goals in rows, Atalanta goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fiorentina v Atalanta?
Atalanta, at 47%. The full split is Fiorentina 27%, draw 25%, Atalanta 47%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina v Atalanta?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Atalanta?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.09 for Fiorentina and 1.52 for Atalanta.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina v Atalanta?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Fiorentina keep a clean sheet or Atalanta fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.