Serie ASaturday, October 24 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Como – Sassuolo
Como
8th · attack 1.41 · defence 0.86
Sassuolo
10th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.24
Our model makes Como favourites for Como – Sassuolo, at 60%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Sassuolo win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.95 goals for Como and 0.97 for Sassuolo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.95 for Como, 0.97 for Sassuolo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, Sassuolo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Como goals in rows, Sassuolo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v Sassuolo?
Como, at 60%. The full split is Como 60%, draw 21%, Sassuolo 18%.
What is the most likely score in Como v Sassuolo?
1–0, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v Sassuolo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.95 for Como and 0.97 for Sassuolo.
Will both teams score in Como v Sassuolo?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or Sassuolo fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.