Serie ASunday, October 11 · 12:30 PM · 6th matchday
Como – Roma
Como
8th · attack 1.41 · defence 0.86
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Our model makes Roma favourites for Como – Roma, at 39% — but only 3.6% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 12:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Roma win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Como and 1.30 for Roma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.23 for Como, 1.30 for Roma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, Roma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Como goals in rows, Roma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v Roma?
Roma, at 39%. The full split is Como 35%, draw 27%, Roma 39%.
What is the most likely score in Como v Roma?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v Roma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Como and 1.30 for Roma.
Will both teams score in Como v Roma?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or Roma fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.