Serie ASaturday, October 24 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Cagliari – Bologna
Cagliari
4th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.10
Bologna
18th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Cagliari – Bologna, at 38% — but only 4.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Cagliari win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Bologna win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.10 goals for Cagliari and 1.19 for Bologna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.10 for Cagliari, 1.19 for Bologna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cagliari wins; above it, Bologna wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cagliari goals in rows, Bologna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cagliari v Bologna?
Bologna, at 38%. The full split is Cagliari 34%, draw 28%, Bologna 38%.
What is the most likely score in Cagliari v Bologna?
1–1, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Bologna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.10 for Cagliari and 1.19 for Bologna.
Will both teams score in Cagliari v Bologna?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Cagliari keep a clean sheet or Bologna fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.