Serie ASaturday, October 17 · 06:00 PM · 7th matchday
Bologna – Inter
Bologna
18th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.06
Inter
2nd · attack 1.97 · defence 0.91
Our model makes Inter favourites for Bologna – Inter, at 60%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 06:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Bologna win 19% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Inter win 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.09 goals for Bologna and 2.09 for Inter, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.09 for Bologna, 2.09 for Inter.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bologna wins; above it, Inter wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Bologna goals in rows, Inter goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bologna v Inter?
Inter, at 60%. The full split is Bologna 19%, draw 20%, Inter 60%.
What is the most likely score in Bologna v Inter?
1–2, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bologna v Inter?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.09 for Bologna and 2.09 for Inter.
Will both teams score in Bologna v Inter?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Bologna keep a clean sheet or Inter fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.