Serie AMonday, October 12 · 06:30 PM · 6th matchday
Atalanta – Venezia
Atalanta
11th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.90
Venezia
20th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.58
Our model makes Atalanta favourites for Atalanta – Venezia, at 72%. Kick-off October 12, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Atalanta win 72% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Venezia win 10%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.24 goals for Atalanta and 0.71 for Venezia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.24 for Atalanta, 0.71 for Venezia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atalanta wins; above it, Venezia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Atalanta goals in rows, Venezia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atalanta v Venezia?
Atalanta, at 72%. The full split is Atalanta 72%, draw 17%, Venezia 10%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta v Venezia?
2–0, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Venezia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 2.24 for Atalanta and 0.71 for Venezia.
Will both teams score in Atalanta v Venezia?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Atalanta keep a clean sheet or Venezia fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.