Serie ASunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Atalanta – Frosinone
Atalanta
11th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.90
Frosinone
6th · attack 1.23 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Atalanta favourites for Atalanta – Frosinone, at 44%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Atalanta win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Frosinone win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Atalanta and 1.11 for Frosinone, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.41 for Atalanta, 1.11 for Frosinone.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atalanta wins; above it, Frosinone wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Atalanta goals in rows, Frosinone goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atalanta v Frosinone?
Atalanta, at 44%. The full split is Atalanta 44%, draw 26%, Frosinone 30%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta v Frosinone?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Frosinone?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Atalanta and 1.11 for Frosinone.
Will both teams score in Atalanta v Frosinone?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Atalanta keep a clean sheet or Frosinone fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.