Serie ASunday, October 18 · 06:00 PM · 7th matchday
AC Milan – Atalanta
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Atalanta
11th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.90
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for AC Milan – Atalanta, at 40%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 06:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, AC Milan win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Atalanta win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.31 goals for AC Milan and 1.15 for Atalanta, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.31 for AC Milan, 1.15 for Atalanta.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AC Milan wins; above it, Atalanta wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AC Milan goals in rows, Atalanta goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AC Milan v Atalanta?
AC Milan, at 40%. The full split is AC Milan 40%, draw 27%, Atalanta 33%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan v Atalanta?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan v Atalanta?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.31 for AC Milan and 1.15 for Atalanta.
Will both teams score in AC Milan v Atalanta?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. AC Milan keep a clean sheet or Atalanta fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.