Thursday 22 October · 18:45
Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Union Saint-Gilloise
4th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.62
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
th · attack 0.79 · defence 1.33
Our model makes Union Saint-Gilloise favourites for Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva, at 79%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Union Saint-Gilloise win 79% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 14.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.46 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.59 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.46 for Union Saint-Gilloise, 0.59 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Union Saint-Gilloise wins; above it, Hapoel Be'er Sheva wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Union Saint-Gilloise goals in rows, Hapoel Be'er Sheva goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Union Saint-Gilloise, at 79%. The full split is Union Saint-Gilloise 79%, draw 14%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 7%.
What is the most likely score in Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
2–0, which comes up in 14.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 2.46 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.59 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Union Saint-Gilloise keep a clean sheet or Hapoel Be'er Sheva fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
