Thursday 22 October · 21:00
TSG Hoffenheim – Olympique Lyonnais
TSG Hoffenheim
17th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.39
Olympique Lyonnais
4th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites for TSG Hoffenheim – Olympique Lyonnais, at 43%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, TSG Hoffenheim win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Olympique Lyonnais win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.84 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.63 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.84 for TSG Hoffenheim, 1.63 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, TSG Hoffenheim wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
TSG Hoffenheim goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in TSG Hoffenheim v Olympique Lyonnais?
TSG Hoffenheim, at 43%. The full split is TSG Hoffenheim 43%, draw 22%, Olympique Lyonnais 35%.
What is the most likely score in TSG Hoffenheim v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 1.84 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.63 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. TSG Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
