Thursday 22 October · 18:45
Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.91
Olympique Marseille
13th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille, at 57%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Sturm Graz win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Olympique Marseille win 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 0.92 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.73 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.92 for Sturm Graz, 1.73 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sturm Graz wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sturm Graz goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sturm Graz v Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille, at 57%. The full split is Sturm Graz 20%, draw 23%, Olympique Marseille 57%.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz v Olympique Marseille?
0–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 0.92 for Sturm Graz and 1.73 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
