Thursday 22 October · 21:00
Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
Lillestrøm
6th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.13
Real Sociedad
6th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Real Sociedad favourites for Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad, at 61%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lillestrøm win 19% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Real Sociedad win 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Lillestrøm and 2.06 for Real Sociedad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.04 for Lillestrøm, 2.06 for Real Sociedad.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lillestrøm wins; above it, Real Sociedad wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lillestrøm goals in rows, Real Sociedad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lillestrøm v Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad, at 61%. The full split is Lillestrøm 19%, draw 20%, Real Sociedad 61%.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrøm v Real Sociedad?
1–2, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lillestrøm v Real Sociedad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Lillestrøm and 2.06 for Real Sociedad.
Will both teams score in Lillestrøm v Real Sociedad?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Lillestrøm keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
