Thursday 22 October · 18:45
Juventus – Rennes
Juventus
6th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.81
Rennes
3rd · attack 1.32 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Juventus – Rennes, at 57%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Juventus win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Rennes win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.79 goals for Juventus and 0.96 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.79 for Juventus, 0.96 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Juventus wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Juventus goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Juventus v Rennes?
Juventus, at 57%. The full split is Juventus 57%, draw 22%, Rennes 20%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus v Rennes?
1–0, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.79 for Juventus and 0.96 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Juventus v Rennes?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Juventus keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
