Thursday 22 October · 21:00
Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
Beşiktaş
2nd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.91
Crystal Palace
12th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.27
Our model makes Crystal Palace favourites for Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace, at 44%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Beşiktaş win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Crystal Palace win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.27 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.54 for Crystal Palace, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.27 for Beşiktaş, 1.54 for Crystal Palace.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Beşiktaş wins; above it, Crystal Palace wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Beşiktaş goals in rows, Crystal Palace goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace, at 44%. The full split is Beşiktaş 32%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace 44%.
What is the most likely score in Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.27 for Beşiktaş and 1.54 for Crystal Palace.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet or Crystal Palace fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
