Thursday 22 October · 21:00
AFC Bournemouth – AC Milan
AFC Bournemouth
18th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.20
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.29 · defence 0.89
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for AFC Bournemouth – AC Milan, at 44%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, AFC Bournemouth win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and AC Milan win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.10 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.40 for AFC Bournemouth, 1.10 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AFC Bournemouth wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AFC Bournemouth goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan?
AFC Bournemouth, at 44%. The full split is AFC Bournemouth 44%, draw 26%, AC Milan 30%.
What is the most likely score in AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.10 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
