Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 09:00 PM
Villarreal – Napoli
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Napoli
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Villarreal – Napoli, at 43%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Villarreal win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Napoli win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Villarreal and 1.42 for Napoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.62 for Villarreal, 1.42 for Napoli.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Villarreal wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Villarreal goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Villarreal v Napoli?
Villarreal, at 43%. The full split is Villarreal 43%, draw 23%, Napoli 34%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal v Napoli?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Napoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Villarreal and 1.42 for Napoli.
Will both teams score in Villarreal v Napoli?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Villarreal keep a clean sheet or Napoli fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.