Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 09:00 PM
Viking – FC Bayern München
Viking
1st · attack 1.68 · defence 0.86
FC Bayern München
2nd · attack 2.22 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for Viking – FC Bayern München, at 74%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Viking win 12% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and FC Bayern München win 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–3, in 8.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Viking and 3.07 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 80% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.23 for Viking, 3.07 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Viking wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Viking goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Viking v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 74%. The full split is Viking 12%, draw 14%, FC Bayern München 74%.
What is the most likely score in Viking v FC Bayern München?
1–3, which comes up in 8.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Viking v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 80% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 93% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Viking and 3.07 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in Viking v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Viking keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.