Champions LeagueWednesday, September 9 · 09:00 PM
Sporting CP – Galatasaray
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.12 · defence 0.69
Galatasaray
2nd · attack 1.60 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Sporting CP – Galatasaray, at 74%. Kick-off September 9, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sporting CP win 74% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Galatasaray win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.87 goals for Sporting CP and 1.09 for Galatasaray, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.87 for Sporting CP, 1.09 for Galatasaray.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sporting CP wins; above it, Galatasaray wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Sporting CP goals in rows, Galatasaray goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sporting CP v Galatasaray?
Sporting CP, at 74%. The full split is Sporting CP 74%, draw 14%, Galatasaray 12%.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP v Galatasaray?
2–1, which comes up in 8.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sporting CP v Galatasaray?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.87 for Sporting CP and 1.09 for Galatasaray.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP v Galatasaray?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Sporting CP keep a clean sheet or Galatasaray fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.