Champions LeagueWednesday, October 14 · 09:00 PM
Roma – Real Madrid
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.72 · defence 0.75
Our model makes Roma favourites for Roma – Real Madrid, at 42%. Kick-off October 14, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Roma win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Real Madrid win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.53 goals for Roma and 1.34 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.53 for Roma, 1.34 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Roma wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Roma goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Roma v Real Madrid?
Roma, at 42%. The full split is Roma 42%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 34%.
What is the most likely score in Roma v Real Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.53 for Roma and 1.34 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in Roma v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.