Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 09:00 PM
RB Leipzig – PSV
RB Leipzig
9th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.05
PSV
3rd · attack 2.14 · defence 1.00
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for RB Leipzig – PSV, at 61%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, RB Leipzig win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and PSV win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.53 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.45 for PSV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.53 for RB Leipzig, 1.45 for PSV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, RB Leipzig wins; above it, PSV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
RB Leipzig goals in rows, PSV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in RB Leipzig v PSV?
RB Leipzig, at 61%. The full split is RB Leipzig 61%, draw 18%, PSV 21%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig v PSV?
2–1, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in RB Leipzig v PSV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.53 for RB Leipzig and 1.45 for PSV.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig v PSV?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet or PSV fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.