Champions LeagueThursday, September 10 · 06:45 PM
PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk
PSV
3rd · attack 2.14 · defence 1.00
Shakhtar Donetsk
th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.05
Our model makes PSV favourites for PSV – Shakhtar Donetsk, at 56%. Kick-off September 10, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, PSV win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Shakhtar Donetsk win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.34 goals for PSV and 1.51 for Shakhtar Donetsk, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.34 for PSV, 1.51 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, PSV wins; above it, Shakhtar Donetsk wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
PSV goals in rows, Shakhtar Donetsk goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in PSV v Shakhtar Donetsk?
PSV, at 56%. The full split is PSV 56%, draw 19%, Shakhtar Donetsk 25%.
What is the most likely score in PSV v Shakhtar Donetsk?
2–1, which comes up in 8.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in PSV v Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 89% of the time. Expected goals are 2.34 for PSV and 1.51 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Will both teams score in PSV v Shakhtar Donetsk?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. PSV keep a clean sheet or Shakhtar Donetsk fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.