Champions LeagueTuesday, September 8 · 09:00 PM
Porto – Manchester City
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.59
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.83
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Porto – Manchester City, at 49%. Kick-off September 8, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Porto win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Manchester City win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.03 goals for Porto and 1.50 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.03 for Porto, 1.50 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Porto wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Porto goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Porto v Manchester City?
Manchester City, at 49%. The full split is Porto 26%, draw 25%, Manchester City 49%.
What is the most likely score in Porto v Manchester City?
0–1, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Porto v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.03 for Porto and 1.50 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in Porto v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Porto keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.