Champions LeagueWednesday, September 9 · 09:00 PM
Paris Saint Germain – Slovan Bratislava
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Slovan Bratislava
th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.56
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Paris Saint Germain – Slovan Bratislava, at 92%. Kick-off September 9, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paris Saint Germain win 92% of the time, the draw comes up 5% and Slovan Bratislava win 2%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 3.96 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.63 for Slovan Bratislava, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.96 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.63 for Slovan Bratislava.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris Saint Germain wins; above it, Slovan Bratislava wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Paris Saint Germain goals in rows, Slovan Bratislava goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint Germain v Slovan Bratislava?
Paris Saint Germain, at 92%. The full split is Paris Saint Germain 92%, draw 5%, Slovan Bratislava 2%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain v Slovan Bratislava?
3–0, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain v Slovan Bratislava?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 94% of the time. Expected goals are 3.96 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.63 for Slovan Bratislava.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain v Slovan Bratislava?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet or Slovan Bratislava fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.