Champions LeagueWednesday, September 9 · 09:00 PM
Napoli – Arsenal
Napoli
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.85
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.68
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Napoli – Arsenal, at 49%. Kick-off September 9, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Napoli win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Arsenal win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 16.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.79 goals for Napoli and 1.30 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time and both teams scoring 39%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.79 for Napoli, 1.30 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Napoli wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Napoli goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Napoli v Arsenal?
Arsenal, at 49%. The full split is Napoli 23%, draw 28%, Arsenal 49%.
What is the most likely score in Napoli v Arsenal?
0–1, which comes up in 16.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 61% of the time. Expected goals are 0.79 for Napoli and 1.30 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in Napoli v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 39% of simulations. Napoli keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 61%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.