Champions LeagueThursday, September 10 · 09:00 PM
Manchester United – Sabah
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.10
Sabah
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.45
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – Sabah, at 86%. Kick-off September 10, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 86% of the time, the draw comes up 9% and Sabah win 5%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 10.3% of simulations.
We expect 3.39 goals for Manchester United and 0.75 for Sabah, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.39 for Manchester United, 0.75 for Sabah.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, Sabah wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Manchester United goals in rows, Sabah goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v Sabah?
Manchester United, at 86%. The full split is Manchester United 86%, draw 9%, Sabah 5%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v Sabah?
3–0, which comes up in 10.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Sabah?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 3.39 for Manchester United and 0.75 for Sabah.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v Sabah?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or Sabah fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.