Champions LeagueWednesday, October 14 · 09:00 PM
Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.83
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Manchester City – Paris Saint Germain, at 61%. Kick-off October 14, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester City win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Paris Saint Germain win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.08 goals for Manchester City and 1.05 for Paris Saint Germain, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.08 for Manchester City, 1.05 for Paris Saint Germain.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, Paris Saint Germain wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Manchester City goals in rows, Paris Saint Germain goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain?
Manchester City, at 61%. The full split is Manchester City 61%, draw 20%, Paris Saint Germain 19%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain?
2–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.08 for Manchester City and 1.05 for Paris Saint Germain.
Will both teams score in Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet or Paris Saint Germain fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.