Champions LeagueWednesday, September 9 · 09:00 PM
Liverpool – Atlético de Madrid
Liverpool
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.46 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Liverpool – Atlético de Madrid, at 53%. Kick-off September 9, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Liverpool win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Atlético de Madrid win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.84 goals for Liverpool and 1.17 for Atlético de Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.84 for Liverpool, 1.17 for Atlético de Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Liverpool wins; above it, Atlético de Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Liverpool goals in rows, Atlético de Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Atlético de Madrid?
Liverpool, at 53%. The full split is Liverpool 53%, draw 22%, Atlético de Madrid 25%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool v Atlético de Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 10.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Atlético de Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.84 for Liverpool and 1.17 for Atlético de Madrid.
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Atlético de Madrid?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet or Atlético de Madrid fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.