Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 06:45 PM
Lens – Sporting CP
Lens
15th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.93
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.12 · defence 0.69
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Lens – Sporting CP, at 42%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lens win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Sporting CP win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Lens and 1.56 for Sporting CP, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.40 for Lens, 1.56 for Sporting CP.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Sporting CP wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Sporting CP goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lens v Sporting CP?
Sporting CP, at 42%. The full split is Lens 35%, draw 24%, Sporting CP 42%.
What is the most likely score in Lens v Sporting CP?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Sporting CP?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Lens and 1.56 for Sporting CP.
Will both teams score in Lens v Sporting CP?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Lens keep a clean sheet or Sporting CP fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.