Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 09:00 PM
Galatasaray – FC Barcelona
Galatasaray
2nd · attack 1.60 · defence 0.98
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.79
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for Galatasaray – FC Barcelona, at 73%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Galatasaray win 13% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and FC Barcelona win 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–3, in 7.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.31 goals for Galatasaray and 3.12 for FC Barcelona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 82% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.31 for Galatasaray, 3.12 for FC Barcelona.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Galatasaray wins; above it, FC Barcelona wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Galatasaray goals in rows, FC Barcelona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Galatasaray v FC Barcelona?
FC Barcelona, at 73%. The full split is Galatasaray 13%, draw 14%, FC Barcelona 73%.
What is the most likely score in Galatasaray v FC Barcelona?
1–3, which comes up in 7.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Galatasaray v FC Barcelona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 82% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 93% of the time. Expected goals are 1.31 for Galatasaray and 3.12 for FC Barcelona.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray v FC Barcelona?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. Galatasaray keep a clean sheet or FC Barcelona fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.