Champions LeagueThursday, September 10 · 06:45 PM
Fenerbahçe – Roma
Fenerbahçe
6th · attack 1.75 · defence 0.96
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Our model makes Roma favourites for Fenerbahçe – Roma, at 56%. Kick-off September 10, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Fenerbahçe win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Roma win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.97 for Roma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.20 for Fenerbahçe, 1.97 for Roma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fenerbahçe wins; above it, Roma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fenerbahçe goals in rows, Roma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fenerbahçe v Roma?
Roma, at 56%. The full split is Fenerbahçe 23%, draw 21%, Roma 56%.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe v Roma?
1–2, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fenerbahçe v Roma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Fenerbahçe and 1.97 for Roma.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe v Roma?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet or Roma fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.