Champions LeagueWednesday, September 9 · 06:45 PM
FC Barcelona – Feyenoord
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.79
Feyenoord
2nd · attack 1.64 · defence 0.91
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Feyenoord, at 84%. Kick-off September 9, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 84% of the time, the draw comes up 10% and Feyenoord win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 7.9% of simulations.
We expect 3.56 goals for FC Barcelona and 1.00 for Feyenoord, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 83% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.56 for FC Barcelona, 1.00 for Feyenoord.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Feyenoord wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Feyenoord goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Feyenoord?
FC Barcelona, at 84%. The full split is FC Barcelona 84%, draw 10%, Feyenoord 7%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Feyenoord?
3–0, which comes up in 7.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Feyenoord?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 83% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 94% of the time. Expected goals are 3.56 for FC Barcelona and 1.00 for Feyenoord.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Feyenoord?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Feyenoord fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.