Champions LeagueThursday, September 10 · 09:00 PM
Como – RB Leipzig
Como
8th · attack 1.41 · defence 0.86
RB Leipzig
9th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Como favourites for Como – RB Leipzig, at 49%. Kick-off September 10, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and RB Leipzig win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.67 goals for Como and 1.17 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.67 for Como, 1.17 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Como goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v RB Leipzig?
Como, at 49%. The full split is Como 49%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 27%.
What is the most likely score in Como v RB Leipzig?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.67 for Como and 1.17 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in Como v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.