Champions LeagueTuesday, September 8 · 06:45 PM
Club Brugge – Aston Villa
Club Brugge
3rd · attack 1.80 · defence 0.80
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Club Brugge favourites for Club Brugge – Aston Villa, at 41% — but only 3.8% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off September 8, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Club Brugge win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Aston Villa win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Club Brugge and 1.55 for Aston Villa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Club Brugge, 1.55 for Aston Villa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Club Brugge wins; above it, Aston Villa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Club Brugge goals in rows, Aston Villa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Club Brugge v Aston Villa?
Club Brugge, at 41%. The full split is Club Brugge 41%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 37%.
What is the most likely score in Club Brugge v Aston Villa?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Club Brugge v Aston Villa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Club Brugge and 1.55 for Aston Villa.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge v Aston Villa?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Club Brugge keep a clean sheet or Aston Villa fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.