Champions LeagueTuesday, September 8 · 09:00 PM
Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund
1st · attack 1.48 · defence 0.89
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal, at 61%. Kick-off September 8, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Dortmund win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Villarreal win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.35 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.32 for Villarreal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.35 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.32 for Villarreal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Dortmund wins; above it, Villarreal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Borussia Dortmund goals in rows, Villarreal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal?
Borussia Dortmund, at 61%. The full split is Borussia Dortmund 61%, draw 19%, Villarreal 21%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal?
2–1, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.35 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.32 for Villarreal.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet or Villarreal fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.