Champions LeagueTuesday, October 13 · 09:00 PM
Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.46 · defence 0.82
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites for Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United, at 42%. Kick-off October 13, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Atlético de Madrid win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Manchester United win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Atlético de Madrid and 1.43 for Manchester United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.62 for Atlético de Madrid, 1.43 for Manchester United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atlético de Madrid wins; above it, Manchester United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Atlético de Madrid goals in rows, Manchester United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atlético de Madrid v Manchester United?
Atlético de Madrid, at 42%. The full split is Atlético de Madrid 42%, draw 23%, Manchester United 34%.
What is the most likely score in Atlético de Madrid v Manchester United?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atlético de Madrid v Manchester United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.43 for Manchester United.
Will both teams score in Atlético de Madrid v Manchester United?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet or Manchester United fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.